Climate change may soon warm your days. But is the future so bright you gotta wear shades? Futurist John Petersen might say that all depends on how you look at the world.
Petersen, author of A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change and president and founder of The Arlington Institute, spoke last week in D.C. at a meeting of the Sustainable Business Network of Washington (SB NOW).
One thing’s for sure in Petersen’s mind: Change is a’ comin’. Lots of it, and soon.
He said exponential change is on the way in a variety of areas: population, economics, oil, climate, technology. All the charts he shared on these topics looked eerily the same–they showed us positioned at the bottom of an Olympic-caliber ski jump, looking up.
Petersen supported the charts with compelling tidbits. The world’s population has grown more in 50 years than in the 4 million years before and is still growing. Oil production is now peaking and will soon decline. Economic woes are spreading worldwide. Climate change is barreling down, with expected effects on agriculture.
These factors, said Petersen, threaten the system. And they all point to a single concept–the way we’ve been living is not sustainable.
In an unrelated but fascinating video, The Story of Stuff, activist and international sustainability expert Annie Leonard said the same thing in examining the entire life of the products we buy, from their creation through their disposal. She said we have a linear system and a finite planet, which isn’t sustainable. “This system looks like it’s fine. But the truth is it’s a system in crisis…. All along the way, it’s bumping up against limits.”
Both Petersen and Leonard believe we must fundamentally change the way we live. Our problems are the product of what we think and do, said Petersen. If we don’t change our ways, we’ll continue to get the same outcome.
In fact, said Petersen, if we ignore the coming exponential changes to the systems that govern our lifestyles, we may be in for a sudden surprise. We’ll be like the Thanksgiving turkey described by Nassir Nicholas Taleb in the Black Swan. The turkey awakens the day before Thanksgiving and, basing all its perceptions on the past, thinks today’s going to be just like every other day.
Perhaps this point is best pondered at times other than 2 a.m., but it’s an interesting one.
Even our ethics will be outdated soon, Petersen said. Soon we will have computing power equal to a human brain, with which we can create the equivalent of 10,000 Ph.D.s working 24/7 on anti-aging research, he said. Already we’ve cloned fingers and made human organs using ink-jet printers. What do we do with this?
Currently, we don’t have the basis to deal with these issues, Petersen said. “All of our rules, values, laws, and ethics come from the past. This is a different world, a different time.”
“This is like life before the Web,” he said. “We’re walking into space we’ve never known before.”
So what does his predictions mean to you and me? And what should we do next?
“It’s like a storm coming; we’ve got to prepare for it,” Petersen said. “We’ve got to build a new world.” Doing so requires perspectives and approaches that are radically different from what we’ve relied on in the past.
To expand on his point, Petersen showed a picture of a person carved from ice. Suppose we were made of ice, he said; we need to contemplate the world with a 1 degree temperature rise that turns everyone into water. That is the scale of change we need.
Making this change, said Petersen, will take three C’s–cooperation, communication, and community. We need interconnectedness and interdependence. “If you decide we’re interconnected and what hurts one hurts another, problem solved.” We also need foresight, innovation, resilience, and sustainability, he said.
Those who are already working in sustainability, according to Petersen, are well poised to help imagine this new world. “In sustainability, you see the world in different ways than you did 10 years ago.”
He ended with a call to action: “Let’s go become the new human beings, the new world.”
Leonard’s video echoes his sentiments: “When people along this system get united, we can reclaim and transform this linear system into something new, a system that doesn’t waste resources or people.”
I’ll be honest; in practical terms, I’m not sure how personally to create this new world. I’m pretty sure I won’t be the one to design a new mode of transportation or pluck energy from the air. Maybe my next step should be to read Petersen’s book.
But sustainability I can get behind. Anything that reduces waste, from reusable shopping bags to wind power and more, moves us in the right direction.
What do you think? Do you buy what Petersen is saying? And if so, how would you create a new world?
I have to say that I really enjoyed the session. It was both scary and invigorating. I picked up John’s book which expands on his presentation and offers a framework for approaching the future changes we face.
Many thanks to SBNOW.org and all the fine individuals that made the event possible.
Thanks, Bob. I agree – he makes the future sound somewhat frightening and yet full of possibilities. It was an especially timely talk, too. Now on inauguration eve, when America seems so open to change, is a good time to think about what we’ll do to make this a better world. Thanks again for your feedback!
[...] reminded me of those made by futurist John Petersen, whose remarks Leafing Out discussed in the Jan. 15 post. Petersen predicted that we’d soon see exponential change in many areas, including the economy, [...]